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Post by fastoy on Nov 8, 2010 4:20:31 GMT 10
Quote from well-read Sunday finance press;
"Fund managers agree, this is a market to be judicious in, - take your time.."
I have seldom agreed less. Maybe the judicious bit is ok, but take your time?
Opportunity waits for noone, and I find it amazing that fund managers, many of whom have already missed a fabulous move, are still hesitant. Hesitancy is death in the market, and this one is just terrific. I've been flat out for months, well documented at TNO. Words almost fail me at this advice.
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Post by fastoy on Nov 17, 2010 14:27:19 GMT 10
Today is a well-deserved break in the strong rally over the last few months, during which those who have been beavering away, have made good money. Doom and gloomers would be happy today, but I have bad news for them...
Resource M&A activity is alive and well, and its hard to know where to look next. But to show what can happen, look at Charter Pacitifc today. CHF.
So my enthusiasm is undiminished, although its pretty finely focussed. Mostly second line resource companies, certainly not banks. Micheal Pascoe today writes how St George and Suncorp may have been close to failing in the GFC. (In the SMH)
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garry
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Post by garry on Nov 17, 2010 22:48:16 GMT 10
Don't know - from where I sit it's time to step out of the local scene and have a look at China. Fridays move on my preferred index, the Shenhzhen, looked to be precursor of trouble. Since then the trend has grown.
There's some super big stuff happening at the moment, and it not just on one or two fronts. Doubtless though, given a week or two of persistence the local news in Oz will catch on.
In truth I very much suspect a heavy duty war between China's mandarins and Obama is now underway.
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Post by fastoy on Nov 19, 2010 4:28:42 GMT 10
It certainly looks like the pause was indeed just that, with the game back to full speed in New York this morning, - still with three hours to go. Dollar down, gold and silver up (5% for Ag), Dow up 180. $A near 99 again.
Sentiment is a powerful force, choosing which fundamentals it wants to follow.
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Post by boomer on Nov 19, 2010 6:50:28 GMT 10
Here's a chart that might provoke some thought on China. Cheers Boomer Attachments:
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Post by fastoy on Nov 26, 2010 10:42:20 GMT 10
There is an interesting little twist in this innocous story.
DJs 11:35:20 Is TPG running short of new ideas? The private-equity giant on Tuesday bagged J. Crew, a retailer it took public in 2006. TPG also bought Petco Animal Supplies in 2006 after floating it four years earlier. It is now studying Seagate Technology, a company that TPG and others took public in 2002. Maybe investors should start guessing likely buyout candidates simply as those that were once private-equity owned. British retailer Debenhams and Australia's Myer Holdings, both former TPG companies, are still available. But TPG is too late to repurchase Burger King, which it took public but was recently bought by 3G Capital, or Del Monte. The question for KKR, which is buying the canned fruit and petfood firm: How many times can it be squeezed before the juice runs out?
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Post by countrylad on Jan 25, 2011 12:21:28 GMT 10
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tc
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Post by tc on Jan 27, 2011 22:39:36 GMT 10
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r2d2
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Post by r2d2 on Feb 8, 2011 11:40:35 GMT 10
Would be interested to hear a few opinions....
Mine is that our market really doesn't seem to want to go on with it.
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golden
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Post by golden on Feb 8, 2011 19:26:01 GMT 10
The XAO/XJO continue to push up r2 which is positive; though I grant you they are close to the 2010 highs which may prove to be a retracement point........it's all in the mind of course g
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Post by fastoy on Feb 9, 2011 5:07:20 GMT 10
Mine is that our market really doesn't seem to want to go on with it.
I'm loving it!
The penny has not quite dropped yet with all the wise journos, that the action is in the FE, gold and silver minnows. Those funds that are exclusively in the banks and heavy industrials are copping a caning. But there is pleny of action in the areas I mention.
Only those who are perceptive can see what an effect our dumb government is having on international traders.
The materials index has out-performed the XJO to such an extent that any reasonable analysis would assume that the gap will close at some point. Ie. either materials will come down, or the banks etc will rise. I suspect that materials will slow a bit, and the biggies will start to catch up.
BHP is a long term standout to me. They have made a succession of mistakes, but have bags of cash with more arriving daily, so at worst they will increase their dividend, or at best, invest it wisely.
While we all know that the music always stops eventually, that does not seem imminent at this time. Many metals are at or approaching all time highs. Today, interest rates rose again in China. Bad news? Well, the US does not think so, so neither do I.
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worm
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Post by worm on Feb 9, 2011 5:13:06 GMT 10
I wonder if all the traders who pulled out after the GFC have jumped back into the market? They are missing out if they have not.
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lance
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Post by lance on Feb 9, 2011 8:13:46 GMT 10
I guess the rate rise was factored in back on Jan 20+21 when the Chinese GDP came out stronger than expected Lance
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Post by fastoy on Feb 9, 2011 9:51:59 GMT 10
Who knows, but the report I read said that the rise in rates was an effort to keep inflation under control while not affecting growth. Its a bit of a fine line, but obviously the market is happy with it. Which to me tells us a lot about current market sentiment.
My view is that positive sentiment is actually a lot stronger than the recent index moves would tell us. Plenty of sharemaket analysts (and the RBA) tend to concentrate on fundamentals of events past, rather than watching the market first and then analysing why and what does it mean?
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garry
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Post by garry on Feb 9, 2011 20:51:36 GMT 10
Don't know about a downmarket sentiment - Rather just the opposite since Xmas passed by. In the last few days FMJ has been a mind boggler for the fleet of foot, as have numerous others since the year got underway. Really its more of a case of running out of fun coupons to play the game. ...Indeed, its a target rich environment
For what it's worth, the Shenzhen is my favorite China indicator and it taken this rate rise quite well....indeed this rise, and more have been factored for quite a while, as have their ever tightening of loan regs
The other thing is ... folks are in fairy land if they don't appreciate the Aust$ is a proxy for the dirt digging game. Lately our currency has been doing rather well ...too good in fact
I suspect the next big moves will be in food producers and related industries, given that China is suffering its worst drought conditions ever, and is all cashed up to fill the food void
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