Market Crash 2011: It will hit by Christmas

[golden]

Market Crash 2011: It will hit by Christmas
Commentary: The S&P 500 is worth only 910. Get out or lose big

Warning: This little conspiracy is a retirement killer. Remember: It’s odds-on you’re being lied to. So for a few moments, listen to some highly respected contrarians. They’re short-selling this conspiracy, betting that 2011 will hit headwinds before Christmas, turn a cyclical bull rally into a cyclical bear market.
Our brains never learned 2008’s lessons, will fail again in 2011

Remember, we can’t help it. Our brains are defective, biased, manipulated by unseen forces 93% of the time. So blame all the lies, lying and liars on our brain wiring. A perfect excuse. Sure, political dogma and insatiable greed factor into our bizarre mental equations. But your brain is as susceptible to the “great con” as Ben Bernanke, Henry Paulson, Bernie Madoff.

Go back a few years: The subprime credit meltdown was widely predicted years in advance. For example, back in 2007, the IMF’s Chief Economist, Raghuram Rajan, “delivered a stark warning to the world’s top bankers: Financial markets were headed for doom. They laughed it off,” said the Toronto Star. Both Alan Greenspan and Larry Summers were there.

In April 2007, Jeremy Grantham, whose firm manages $107 billion, also warned investors: “The First Truly Global Bubble: From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art; from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure, and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it’s bubble time. … Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another. … Bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets … no similar global event has occurred before.”

We knew a crash was coming, Wall Street laughed. ...................................

www.marketwatch.com/story/market-crash-2011-it-will-hit-by-christmas-2011-02-22?pagenumber=2


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[fastoy]

All sounds pretty good. And may well be right.

I'll take a risk on it for now.

The last time I saw a prediction like that (or stronger) was from a very well known and respected guru who told us to get the hell out of the Dow. The year was 1992, and the Dow was at 3000.

Pity I never took his advice, I would have been well out before the 2008 crunch.

[r2d2]

Mar 2, 2011 10:18:05 GMT 10 fastoy said:

...Pity I never took his advice, I would have been well out before the 2008 crunch.

;D

[worm]

That reminds me of a story on 3AW a couple of days ago. Apparently all expert predictions are wrong most of the time (who knew!). And its more accurate to get a monkey to throw darts at a board.

[fastoy]

While on this subject, I am reminded of a short term TNO subbie, who was very agressive and abusive towards anyone who did not agree with him. He famously told us to, er, get out, on the very day that the market bottomed prior to the incredible bull advance that lasted for five years and 4000 index points.

That taught me, - if I didn;t know by then, - that we all have to make up our own minds.

Attachments:

[r2d2]

The next month or so will prove interesting, particularly as the Republicans & Democrats try to stare each other down over the US Budget deficit, but I suspect Obama will have to yield in the end, its just a matter of what level of concessions he has to make. Add into the mix a tsunami of unrest in the Middle East and the resultant increasing oil prices with supply instability and uncertainty, as well as the always just under the surface public debt issues in Europe, and we have a cocktail of ingredients (a Molotov cocktail ?) that could easily explode... not too mention climate change, carbon taxes, natural disasters...crikey, it would be a tough gig if you were the CEO of the world !

[fastoy]

I will mainly be watching two things, the gold price action, and the $US.

Gold price action, - as distinct from the actual price at any given time, - will tell us the state of nervousness in the markets that are affected by the events you mention.

The $US will tell us about what the Fed is doing, or at least what the market thinks of what it doing. While they are printing money via the bond buying, then the US dollar will most likey be weak.

So if gold were to collapse and the dollar rise, it would get my attention.

[lance]

So if gold were to collapse and the dollar rise, it would get my attention.

Well it wasn't a collapse but it did give up the recent break and perhaps if the ECB didn't make the comments they did the USD might have been stronger???

And i guess the ECB comments have affected the AUD too? A change in trading pattern there.

Lance